France enter the semi-final with **6 wins from 6**, scoring **16 goals (2.7 xG per game)** and conceding **2**, while Spain have **4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss**, scoring **10 (1.7 xG/game)** and conceding **5** in the tournament. France’s 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 transition shape, built on high-intensity pressing (over 9 passes per defensive action and ~45% of recoveries in the middle third) and direct vertical attacks, clashes with Spain’s 4-3-3/4-1-4-1 positional play, which averages **60–62% possession** and **550–600 completed passes** per match. The decisive battles are France’s central striker (c. 5 goals, 0.45 non-pen xG/90) attacking Spain’s left channel vs Spain’s right-sided centre-back (over 3.5 clearances and 1.2 tackles/90) on crosses, plus France’s right-sided creator (3 goals, 3 assists, ~0.55 xG+xA/90) against Spain’s left-back (0.9 chances created/90 but only 0.8 successful tackles/90), a zone where France have generated roughly **35%** of their shots. On set pieces, France have scored **4 goals from dead balls** (about **0.45 set-piece xG per game**) and conceded none, while Spain have **1 set-piece goal for, 2 against**, giving France a measurable edge in corners and wide free-kicks; pressing data show Spain allowing **2.3 high-turnover shots against** compared to France’s **1.1**, making Spanish buildup riskier. Historically Spain lead the overall rivalry **18–13–7** with a **71–44** goal difference, but France edge competitive meetings **6–4**, and Spain’s recent 5–4 Nations League win (2025) reflected their 57% possession yet xG nearly level, suggesting France’s transition threat scales well even when out-possessed. Statistically, outcomes hinge on whether Spain can limit France below **1.5 xG** and withstand set-piece pressure, while France’s probability of advancing rises sharply if they maintain their tournament averages of **3+ goals scored, <1 conceded**, and keep Spain under **8–9 shots on target plus 0.2 xG from set pieces**.